Scotland, size and why a small population is no barrier to international success

“Time to stand up now and be a nation again,” read the tartan banner above the Scotland fans in Cologne.

A 5-1 defeat to Germany in the opening match had raised more existential questions than might have been expected, as this was only their team’s second appearance in a major tournament since 1998.

“Germany is a country with 83 million inhabitants,” former Scotland international Graeme Souness said on BBC television after that match. “We are a nation of 5.2 million people.”

It’s true that Scotland is a relatively small country, but it’s still condescending to suggest that just being in Germany is enough.

Switzerland, Scotland’s opponents who drew 1-1 on Wednesday, have reached the knockouts in the past five major tournaments – and are likely to extend that to six. Of the European countries, only France can equal that record. Their population? 8.7 million – just three million more than Scotland.

Denmark has 5.9 million inhabitants. They reached the semi-finals of the last European Championship and won the entire tournament in 1992.

And then there is Croatia. They have only existed as an independent country since 1991, have around 1.5 million fewer inhabitants than Scotland and yet have already reached the last four of the World Cup three times since Scotland last even qualified – including the final in 2018.

Scotland has the potential to be much more than it has shown in recent decades: the country has a storied and deep football culture, a history of player development and has produced some of Europe’s greatest coaching talents.

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Their 1-1 draw against Switzerland was a world away from the insipid performance against Germany – but they now need to beat Hungary in Stuttgart on Sunday to have a realistic chance of progressing from the group.

Scotland needs to break the glass ceiling; their goal should not be regular appearances at major tournaments, but regular appearances in the knockout stages. So what needs to change?

Scotland fans have traveled to Germany in large numbers (Stu Forster/Getty Images)

Switzerland, Denmark and Croatia are useful prisms for viewing Scottish football. Looking at their squads, there is a clear difference between the number of players playing in the top five European leagues. Scotland only has six, the fewest of the four. Croatia has twelve, with Denmark (17) and Switzerland (21) leading.

There is a clear lack of quality at the highest level and at times of high pressure these characteristics become apparent.

Scotland made several high-profile mistakes against Germany, such as the tackle that saw Ryan Porteous sent off, but the real concern was the inability of Steve Clarke’s side to play. They lacked confidence in possession and regularly sent the ball down blind alleys to Celtic right-back Anthony Ralston. Series of more than five passages were rare.

So why this shortage? All of the above countries develop players in their domestic leagues before top talents move abroad in their late teens or early twenties – that is not the case in Scotland.

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Research from CIES Football Observatory last season found that the Scottish Premiership awards the fourth-lowest percentage of first-team minutes to club-trained players (who have been with the club for at least three seasons between the ages of 15 and 21). , at only 7.2 percent. Only Turkey, Greece and Italy score lower.

There are several reasons behind this. One of these is a gap in the pathway: if a Scottish Premiership player is too good for the under-18s, there is currently no bridge to senior football. Although the Scottish age groups up to under 16 are highly competitive, results decline as players get older.

Right now, it’s crucial to a player’s development that only the most elite players have a route to meaningful playing time.

Another factor: since British freedom of movement in the European Union ended on January 1, 2021 as a result of Brexit, Scottish youngsters have also become increasingly attractive to English clubs. Nearly 30 players under the age of 18 have moved in just over three years. While the full implications of the shift are not yet clear, there are concerns about what it could mean for the long-term strength of the Scottish Premiership.

But another concern is the type of player Scotland produces. Clarke opted not to start Brighton & Hove Albion midfielder Billy Gilmour in the defeat to Germany – one of the rare players in the Scottish side with the ability to receive the ball under pressure, turn and start an attack. Another, Bologna’s Lewis Ferguson, is a big miss after tearing his anterior cruciate ligament in April.

Alongside Liverpool left-back Andy Robertson, they are Scotland’s players of real technical quality. While the physicality of the wider squad is sufficient to beat opponents in qualifying, it is suspected that their capabilities in major tournaments are limited.

The influence of the former group is clear. Against Switzerland, when Gilmour returned to the starting line-up, Scotland’s opening goal came from an attack sparked by his clever feet and his hooked pass into space. Although Grant Hanley’s header hit the post, their best late chance to win came via a perfectly floated ball from Callum McGregor to Robertson, whose nod back across goal almost found the onrushing Scott McTominay. Xherdan Shaqiri’s equalizer, as good as it was, came from a moment of panic in Ralston’s possession.

“He’s a really good player,” Clarke said after the match about the decision to start Gilmour. “He’s a fantastic player. Everyone uses that word ‘technical’ so sometimes it just gets missed. It was always my intention to start Billy in the second game. Maybe that’s why he didn’t start the first.”

Scotland need to find a way to bring in more players who are comfortable in possession – Switzerland, Denmark and Croatia all have plenty of them. Take the Swiss goal from 22 passes against Hungary as a good example. Croatia’s ageless midfield is masterful at holding the ball, while Denmark is comfortable from the back.

In 2012, the Scottish FA launched a performance school aimed at producing this kind of talent, but the only significant graduates were Gilmour, Everton’s Nathan Patterson and Liverpool’s Calvin Ramsay. Neither of the latter two were part of Clarke’s squad.

While the current crop – Robertson, McTominay, Kieran Tierney, John McGinn – are some of the most talented players Scotland has produced, there are legitimate concerns about where the next generation will come from. Scotland’s 26-man European Championship squad has just two players under the age of 25 – Gilmour (23) and Bristol City striker Tommy Conway (21) – while Liverpool’s Ben Doak has withdrawn with an injury.

The Scottish people cannot be used as an excuse for their status; that rhetoric blocks their ability to compete at this level. The likes of Croatia and Denmark show that structure can lead to results, while Scotland’s game against Switzerland – who have the best chances against a side that regularly reaches the knockout stages – shows that they belong.

This tournament should serve as a catalyst for reinvestment, not as the end of a generation.

(Top photo: Robbie Jay Barratt – AMA/Getty Images)