Survey Reveals Massive Disinterest in Iranian Presidential Debates

A survey by Iran’s Student Polling Agency (ISPA) shows a significant lack of interest among the electorate, with 73% of respondents reporting that they did not watch the first presidential debate on June 17.

This lack of commitment is alarming as Iran prepares to elect a new president following the unexpected death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash last month.

The survey, which included personal interviews with 4,545 citizens on June 18 and 19, shows that only 26.8% of the population watched the television debatefocusing on the pressing economic issues facing the country.

Furthermore, ISPA’s findings reveal a broader trend of apathy towards election news, with 35% of respondents reporting that they do not follow election news at all, and others only minimally engaged.

The withdrawal comes amid calls for an election boycott. Many citizens, as well as various political and civil society groups, have expressed dissatisfaction with the Islamic Republic’s record on human rights and democratic governance. The pressure to boycott the elections is exacerbated by the Iranian government’s repressive measures against freedom of expression and the dissemination of independent survey results.

Authorities have previously issued threats against those who release or publish research data that portrays the government negatively, warning of legal repercussions and possible criminal charges.

Participation in the elections plummeted during the 2020 parliamentary race, when hundreds of regime insiders seen as too moderate were barred from running. As a result, the hardliners captured the majority of seats, while election turnout was less than 50%.

The same scenario was repeated in the 2021 presidential and March 2024 parliamentary elections, where many serious candidates were disqualified by the 12-member, unelected Guardian Council. In both elections the turnout was well below 50%. Six carefully selected candidates were also allowed to participate in the current elections.

Meanwhile, the government continued to use lethal force against demonstrators and crackdown on dissidents. This oppression reflects deeper systemic issues within the Iranian political landscape, as highlighted by prominent Iranian socio-political analyst Abbas Abdi. In a recent critique entitled ‘A point with the government’, Abdi articulated the consequences of the government’s uniformity policy, which he believes has led to a reduction in political participation.

According to Abdi, the decline in participation rates in areas like Tehran to around 10% or less is a clear sign of a crisis of legitimacy within the political system. He noted that while some constituencies may see higher turnout due to ethnic, tribal, linguistic or religious factors, the overall low participation is a warning sign and an “ominous trumpet” for Iranian politics under the sway of the current ruling system.

“I am not saying that participation in Tehran should be 80%, but participation below 50% is a warning sign. When it drops below 10%, it is a siren and even an ominous trumpet for politics.”

Abdi further argued that distrust in government leads to reduced efficiency and a lack of public willingness to participate in the political process. He criticized the current government for its apparent incompetence in addressing and understanding social issues, describing it as “ideal, visionless and disappointing”.

The consequences of such widespread discontent are profound. As Abdi notes, the distance between the people and the government has become so great that bridging such a gap poses not only a logistical challenge but also an emotional and psychological burden on the population.

As Iran heads into its controversial elections on June 28, the environment is marked by skepticism and a crisis of legitimacy. The last parliamentary elections in Marchwhich saw a low turnout during the second round in Tehran with a participation of only about 8%, underlines the growing gap between the government and its citizens.