Twins need more from Pablo López and Byron Buxton to really get off the ground

After two close losses to round out their homestand, the Twins are 41-34 and approaching the midpoint of their season.

They’ve survived countless injuries to get ready to battle for the division title. As they stand, they’re good enough to make the playoffs, but they’re far from the proverbial “team no one wants to play” in October.

As the trade deadline approaches, there will likely be widespread local consternation that the team’s owners are unlikely to approve any expensive additions, even after the team’s rare playoff victory last year.

Let’s keep an eye on the true, key variables that will determine whether the 2024 Twins will be more than an oddity: the performance of two of their three big-money players.

The Twins have signed three players to lucrative, long-term contracts that will keep them in check until late in the decade: Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton and Pablo López.

Correa performs like a star. Buxton fails to produce the kind of power that would make him an impact player. López was the biggest disappointment of the Twins season.

Buxton is a physical contradiction in cleats. He’s running as well as ever, but his ever-problematic right knee seems to be limiting his swing. The result: a slugging percentage of .383.

The players on the Twins roster with slugging percentages closest to him – Alex Kirilloff (.384), Austin Martin (.372) and Eddie Julien (.367) – have all earned demotions this season, although Martin is in his third stint has been reinstated in the main subjects.

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López entered the season not only as the Twins’ recognized ace, but also as one of the best starting pitchers in baseball. Given that the Twins’ perceived primary flaw entering the season was the quality and depth of pitching, it’s remarkable that this team has been able to compete while López has built the highest ERA (5.63) among their current starters.

Royce Lewis’s astonishing performances in the past fortnight have mitigated Buxton’s lack of production. There is no way for the Twins to reach their potential without López pitching like an ace.

He has to lead the staff. He has to make sure this team reaches the playoffs. He was scheduled to throw Game 1 of the playoffs. If he can’t correct himself, this team’s midseason strategy will be to pray that Lewis can hit enough home runs with Correa on base to overcome spotty starting pitching.

No one should be surprised that Correa has righted himself. Last year he played despite plantar fasciitis, and now that he’s healthy, his obsessive conditioning and studying are paying off with optimal grades.

It shouldn’t surprise us that Buxton is having a hard time. He’s an elite athlete, one capable of generating top speed and hitting long home runs, but his knee has limited his swing the past two seasons, even when he could play.

López is the surprise of this well-paid group. The Twins like his personality, approach, coachability, work ethic and intelligence. In terms of intangibles, he is a five-tool player.

This year, his main contribution to the team is draping party vests on the shoulders of hitters who have returned to the dugout after hitting a home run.

López won’t get paid $73.5 million over four years to be a party planner. The Twins need him to lead their rotation.

There remains time for him to do that. Last year, his monthly ERAs went as follows: 4.00, 4.25, 4.46, 3.71, 2.00, 3.68, 0.71. That last number was his ERA over two postseason starts.

López, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober would give the Twins a strong playoff rotation if López pitches well. If he doesn’t pitch well, the Twins might not even make the playoffs.

If López isn’t hiding a performance-altering injury, he can improve immediately by simply stopping throwing the ball over the heart of the plate.

Sounds easy. And for someone of López’s abilities, it should be.